Community-created
Think Like a Forecaster: Robot Battles, Brackets, and Ballots
by MonaA self-paced Socratic series for a math-loving young predictor. Using BattleBots as the arena and elections as the second stage, learn to put honest numbers on guesses, grade them, update them as evidence arrives, rate robots with Elo, see how tournament formats reshape the odds, and read prediction markets as crowds putting a price on beliefs.
Library
Grading Your Guesses
Lesson 1
The 70% Call That Missed
You gave a robot a 70% chance to win and it lost — but figuring out how to grade that guess turns out to be far trickier than making it.
StartLesson 2
The Loudmouth, the Mumbler, and Ten Robot Fights
Two friends called the same ten robot fights - one shouting 95%, one murmuring 60% - and now you have to invent a score that decides who forecast better without anyone being able to cheat it.
StartChanging Your Mind the Right Way
Lesson 3
Three to One on Bite Force
A commentator says the odds on Bite Force are '3 to 1' - but is that a one-in-three chance or something else entirely? Forecasters have a second language for chance, and it behaves very strangely for 'sure things'.
StartLesson 4
Before the First Bell
A brand-new robot rolls into the arena. What should you believe about it before it has fought even once?
Locked till you take the prior lessonLesson 5
The Robot That Lost Its Debut
A favorite loses its first fight. How far should one result move your forecast, and how could you measure it?
Locked till you take the prior lessonRatings That Learn
Lesson 6
1500 Meets 1700
Two numbers, one matchup. How could a rating gap turn into a win probability?
Locked till you take the prior lessonLesson 7
Points on the Line
After every fight, ratings move. Build the rule that decides how far, and in which direction.
Locked till you take the prior lessonLesson 8
The Rookie Problem
A newcomer's rating might be way off. Should their results count the same as a veteran's?
Locked till you take the prior lessonHow the Tournament Is Built
Lesson 9
Sixteen Robots, One Trophy
The top-rated robot enters a knockout bracket. What are its real chances of lifting the trophy?
Locked till you take the prior lessonLesson 10
Everyone Fights Everyone
Put the same robots in groups where each fights all the others. What happens to your forecast?
Locked till you take the prior lessonLesson 11
Paired by Record
In a Swiss tournament, winners face winners. Does that find the best robot faster? Experts disagree.
Locked till you take the prior lessonBallots and Crowds
Lesson 12
One Poll Says 52%
A poll of 500 voters says one candidate is ahead. How much should you trust it?
Locked till you take the prior lessonLesson 13
A Ticket Worth $1 If…
A ticket pays $1 only if a candidate wins, and it trades at 65¢. What is that price really telling you?
Locked till you take the prior lessonLesson 14
The Crowd vs. the Expert
Crowds of traders have gone head to head with experts. Whose forecast would you trust, and when?
Locked till you take the prior lessonYour Season
Lesson 15
Build Your Own Forecasting Machine
Pick a real tournament, set your priors and ratings, model the format, and forecast it your way.
Locked till you take the prior lessonReview and assessment
Lesson 16
Test: Think Like a Forecaster: Robot Battles, Brackets, and Ballots
Review the course ideas by applying them to new situations, with kind feedback after every answer.
Locked till you take the prior lesson