Community-created
Who Will Win? The Art of Smart Predictions
by JoySchooler LearnerLearn how expert forecasters guess the winners of games, elections, and contests, and how they change their guesses as new clues arrive. You'll practice making predictions you can actually check, and become a sharper, fairer guesser.
Library
Making and Changing Smart Guesses
Lesson 1
The 5000-to-1 Season
Experts said a small soccer team had a 5000-to-1 shot at the championship — then the team won it, and now someone has to decide what that means about the experts.
StartLesson 2
Saying It in Percents
Two forecasters back the same team in two different ways, the team loses anyway — and now you have to decide which forecaster, if either, was actually wrong.
StartLesson 3
The Number Before the News
A forecaster must publish a win chance before a single clue about the game arrives — so where can that very first number honestly come from?
StartLesson 4
Which Clue Counts?
An injured star, a winning streak, a lucky jersey. Some clues matter a lot. How can you tell which ones?
Locked till you take the prior lessonLesson 5
The Score at Halftime
Your team is behind at halftime. Should your guess change, and if so, by how much?
Locked till you take the prior lessonLesson 6
Asking 20 Out of 500
Can you predict a whole school's election by asking just a few students? It depends on who you ask.
Locked till you take the prior lessonLesson 7
Same Teams, Different Bracket
Group stage, round robin, knockout, Swiss. Same eight teams each time. Would you pick the same winner?
Locked till you take the prior lessonLesson 8
One Bad Game
Your favorite player has one terrible game. What should a smart guesser do with that news?
Locked till you take the prior lessonLesson 9
Grading a Guesser
Weather forecasters, sports experts, and you all make predictions. How do you know who's actually good at it?
Locked till you take the prior lessonReview and assessment
Lesson 10
Test: Who Will Win? The Art of Smart Predictions
Review the course ideas by applying them to new situations, with kind feedback after every answer.
Locked till you take the prior lesson